This note invites the decarbonisation and just transition policy making community to reflect on the nature of our national-level analytical resources, with a focus on the use of quantitative modelling in South Africa.  We ask to what extent the analysis we have and how we use it is appropriate to the globally evolving understanding of the decarbonisation challenge as complex, systemic and uncertain, and can support the shifting focus to decision-making and implementation.  We conclude by scoping at a high level what such analysis might look like conceptually and practically.