Publications

Meridian Economics recently undertook a project to better understand the decarbonisation options available to the high emitting coal-to-liquid assets of Secunda and Sasolburg in South Africa. A key objective of the project was to experiment with methodology for...

This briefing note is a follow-up publication to our 2022 series of reports on resolving South Africa's power crisis. The evidence presented in this work demonstrates that despite the significant increase in load shedding in 2022 (8.1 TWh of unserved energy vs 1.8 TWh...

Net zero by 2050' has served a powerful political and narrative purpose for climate mitigation, providing a clear unifying objective and direction for decarbonisation efforts. In this paper, we unpack what 'net zero by 2050' means from a scientific perspective. We...

This report was written by Meridian as part of a series dedicated to just energy transition partnerships in Africa, produced by the Ukama Platform. The series provides key insights from three African country studies - South Africa, Nigeria and Senegal - on the...

In this briefing note, we report on the expected negative impact that proposed reforms to Eskom's tariff structures will have on the role that the distributed generation market can play in resolving load shedding on the short-term. In a context where South Africa has...

In this piece, Meridian Economics' thinking on 'Phase Down Finance' is featured by the World Economic Forum as part of their Sustainable Investment series. The piece responds to the observation that divestment from emitting assets does not necessarily lead to their...

The concept of 'net zero by 2050' has proved a powerful political and narrative focusing device. However, the concept requires careful translation to enable the detailed analysis required for the development of decarbonisation strategies for countries, sectors, cities...

Large-scale gas use for power generation is central to energy policy direction in South Africa, but this policy rests on a 2012 vision which pre-dates dramatic reductions in renewable energy costs and carbon emissions space. In this report, we demonstrate that the...

This report is the first of a two-part series on resolving South Africa's power crisis. The evidence presented in the report demonstrates that an additional 5GW of renewable capacity would have essentially solved load shedding in 2021 whilst enabling better and more...

This report is the second of a two-part series on resolving South Africa's power crisis. The outlook for South Africa's escalating load shedding problem is significantly worse than generally recognised, but insights from the empirical evidence demonstrate that...

This note invites the decarbonisation and just transition policy making community to reflect on the nature of our national-level analytical resources, with a focus on the use of quantitative modelling in South Africa. We ask to what extent the analysis we have and how...

This Briefing Note sets out South Africa's emerging domestic climate mitigation policy architecture in detail, focusing on its application to the all-important power sector. We argue that the country's main mitigation instruments are likely to be limited in their...

The Just Transition Transaction (JTT) is a prototype coal retirement mechanism for South Africa aimed at de-risking the power sector for affordable decarbonisation and supporting affected coal communities. Structured as a...

This note reflects on South Africa's updated emissions range target contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution, which conveys a significant increase in the country's climate mitigation ambition. It draws implications for SA's coal fleet, noting that an...

South Africa must rise to the challenge of our current crisis. This note presents five critical actions to jumpstart South Africa's journey to a 21st century energy sector which will be critical to powering green economic growth and unlocking a myriad of new...

This paper is one of several resources elaborating various aspects of the Just Transition Transaction (JTT). This paper addresses the Climate Policy and Finance theme, specifically how the JTT suggests the need for a new sub-category of climate (mitigation) finance...

This scoping study conceptualises the key elements of a Just Transition programme for Mpumalanga, for costing purposes. It provides an initial approach for considering the financial support requirements for a just transition, proposes a systematic method to estimate...

This briefing note reports on an industry survey (239 industry players) aimed at gauging interest in the renewable energy distributed generation sector. Results reveal that there is large market interest in investing in the sector and suggest that lifting the...

This background paper is a content contribution to the discussions of the Debt Relief for Green and Inclusive Recovery Project. It provides insight into the role of concessional finance in unlocking South Africa's energy transition, an emerging economy with legacy...

SA's current regulatory framework is no longer fit for purpose. To address this issue, this brief proposes easing market access registration and licensing requirements. In particular, it expands the highly restricted categories of projects which are licence exempt...

This Brief was written in the context of analysis undertaken by Meridian and CSIR for the project 'A Vital Ambition - determining the cost of additional CO2 emission mitigation in the SA electricity system'. Therefore, the analysis in this brief identifies a possible...

The Mpumalanga region in South Africa, where most coal mines and power plants are located, faces the challenge of transitioning away from coal. This briefing note considers transitions in Germany and Spain, before reflecting on some lessons that can be gleaned for...

This study, undertaken in collaboration with the CSIR, assesses the cost of climate mitigation in the future SA power sector, considering the increasing carbon constraints on the power system up until 2050. The study also determines the cost implications of adopting...

This report presents the results of a study which unpacks some of the major political, institutional, regulatory and social barriers to renewable energy deployment in South Africa. It also provides some insight into proposed means of addressing these barriers to...

The South African power sector is undergoing a complex structural transition away from a model of regulated, monopolistic, centralised and coal-based electricity supply. The employment implications of this transition are politically and socially significant. This...

The South African power sector is undergoing a complex structural transition away from a model of regulated, monopolistic, centralised and coal-based electricity supply. The employment implications of this transition are politically and socially significant. This...

This power systems analysis investigated the economics of decommissioning Eskom's older coal fired power stations and curtailing part of its mega-coal plant construction programme, whilst maintaining security of power supply. It concludes that such an intervention...

This power systems analysis investigated the economics of decommissioning Eskom's older coal fired power stations and curtailing part of its mega-coal plant construction programme, whilst maintaining security of power supply. It concludes that such an intervention...

This report from Meridian Economics to the Presidential State Owned Enterprises Review Committee analyses the impact of economic regulation on South African SOEs in the energy, transport, and communications sectors. The report details problems with economic...

This paper examines the investment practices of Eskom, the South African electricity utility, and argues that its state-owned status has led to a pattern of excessive investment. The paper argues that, in the past, Eskom's pricing model has encouraged it to invest in...

This report examines the performance of regulatory frameworks in the South African telecommunications, electricity, and transport sectors. The report finds that while these sectors have undergone significant transformation since the end of apartheid, structural issues...